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Uttar Pradesh poll results: How the margin of victories calls the EVM manipulation bluff

The results of 18th Assembly election of Uttar Pradesh have bulldozed numerous tall claims, and hence, to justify them several conspiracy theories have been floated up. The concealment of mandate through EVM manipulation has been dominated since the 2017 election, but this time tampering in the electoral roll has been added. It is alleged that locally names of supporters of Opposition parties were strategically eliminated from the electoral roll, and hence, the Opposition parties lost many seats with narrow margins. To support this, numerous images have been circulated on social media claiming that the margin of victory between the incumbent BJP and the challenger SP has been below 2,000 votes on so many seats. The claims about the number of such seats have been varying.

Although the electoral roll tampering allegation cannot be verified at this stage, claims about the margin of victories can be analysed easily. Based on the constituency wise trend of election result data of the Election Commission of India (ECI), I analyse the margin of votes of various parties.

Margin of Victory Below 2,000

Figure 1 shows the party-wise margin of victory of candidates. There are 29 candidates who have won the election with a margin below 2,000, out of which 18 candidates have been from the BJP and its allies whereas 10 candidates have been from the SP and its allies. One candidate has been from the Congress.

Figure 1: Party-Wise Victory Margin of Candidates

WhatsApp Image 2022-03-28 at 8.40.25 AM

Table 1 provides information about the top 10 candidates who have won the election by a narrow margin. Among all candidates Ashok Kumar Rana of the BJP has defeated Naimul Hasan of the SP with a narrowed margin of votes (203) in the Dhampur constituency of Bijour district, followed by Sakendra Pratap of the BJP in the Kursi constituency of Barabanki district. Pratap has defeated Rakesh Kumar Verma of the SP; Rakesh is son of late Beni Prasad Verma, the stalwart Kurmi leader of Uttar Pradesh.

Table-1: Top 10 Candidates Winning with Narrowest Margin of Votes

Constituency Const. No. Winner Candidate Winner Party Runner Candidate Runner Party Margin
Dhampur 20 ASHOK KUMAR RANA BJP NAIM UL HASAN SP 203
Kursi 266 Sakendra Pratap BJP Rakesh Kumar Verma SP 217
Chandpur 23 SWAMI OMVESH SP KAMLESH SAINI BJP 234
Nehtaur 21 OMKUMAR BJP MUNSHIRAM RLD 258
Ram Nagar 267 FAREED MAHFOOZ KIDWAI SP SHARAD KUMAR AWASTHI BJP 261
Isauli 187 MOHD TAHIR KHAN SP OM PRAKASH PANDEY BJP 269
Bilaspur 36 Baldev Singh Aulakh BJP Amarjeet Singh SP 307
Baraut 51 KRISHAN PAL MALIK BJP JAIVEER RLD 315
Nakur 2 MUKESH CHOUDHARY BJP DR. DHARAM SINGH SAINI SP 315

Margin of Victory Above 1 lakh Vote

Figure 1 further reveals that there are 11 Assembly constituencies where the margin of victory has been more than one lakh votes. All such constituencies have been won by the BJP candidates. Table 1 provides further description about such candidates. Sunil Kumar Sharma of the BJP has defeated his rival Amarpal Sharma of the SP with the highest margin of votes (214,835) in the Sahibabad constituency of Ghaziabad district. Pankaj Singh, son of Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, is at the second position defeating his rival with the highest number of votes. The name of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath also figures in this list, and his name is at the 10th position.

Table 2: Winning Candidates with Victory Margin of More than 1 Lakh

Constituency Const. No Winner Candidate Winner Party Runner Candidate Runner Party Margin
Sahibabad 55 SUNIL KUMAR SHARMA BJP AMARPAL SHARMA SP 214835
Noida 61 Pankaj Singh BJP Sunil Choudhary SP 181513
Dadri 62 TEJPAL SINGH NAGAR BJP RAJKUMAR BHATI SP 138218
Meerut Cantt. 47 AMIT AGARWAL BJP MANISHA AHLAWAT Rashtriya Lok Dal 118072
Agra North 89 PURUSHOTTAM KHANDELWAL BJP SHABBIR ABBAS Bahujan Samaj Party 112370
Mehroni 227 Manohar Lal BJP Kiran Ramesh Khatik Bahujan Samaj Party 110451
Mathura 84 SHRIKANT SHARMA BJP PRADEEP MATHUR Indian National Congress 109803
Lalitpur 226 Ramratan Kushwaha BJP Chandra Bhusan Singh Bundela (Guddu Raja) Bahujan Samaj Party 107215
Ghaziabad 56 Atul Garg BJP Vishal Verma SP 105537
Gorakhpur Urban 322 ADITYANATH BJP SUBHAWATI UPENDRA DUTT SHUKLA SP 103390
Hathras 78 ANJULA SINGH MAHAUR BJP SANJEEV KUMAR Bahujan Samaj Party 100856

Battle for the Second Position

Figure 2 provides a description about the number of seats each political party acquired at the second position. The figure reveals that the SP candidates acquired the highest number (223) at the second position in the electoral contest, followed by the BJP candidates (115). The most interesting revelation is about the BSP which trails RLD even at the second position. Nineteen RLD and 18 BSP candidates are at the second position.

Figure 2: Political Parties at the Second Position

 WhatsApp Image 2022-03-28 at 8.48.00 AM

The analysis of the margin of votes of winners and runners-up reveal that the name of BJP candidates not only figure in the list of candidates winning with narrowest margin of votes, but also highest margin of votes. The Opposition needs to work not only in those constituencies where the victory margin is narrow, but also where the victory margin is widest.

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