The month of August which is the core month of the monsoon season is about to end in a few days. The distribution of rains in the month has been on regional levels.
Extreme rainfall events occurred in parts of Central and West India along with the Himalayas whereas the west coast, Indo-Gangetic plains and North East India barely recorded any significant rains throughout August.
Till 27 August, Delhi recorded a mere 39.8mm against the normal of 207.4mm, the monthly departure stands at -81 per cent from the normal, interestingly August is the Wettest month of the year in the capital which is underperforming by a huge margin.
Seasonal rains from June till now stand at 350.6mm against the normal of 491.5mm and the departure from normal is -29 per cent, a poor monsoon for the national capital region despite good July rain when Safdarjung Observatory saw 286.3mm rainfall against the normal of 209.7mm.
Main reasons behind significant low rains in Delhi-NCR and North India August
1. The Monsoon axis remained south of its normal position for nearly 90 per cent days in the month.
2. None of the low pressure area or depression from the Bay of Bengal travelled to North India, all of them have impacted Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan.
3. North India usually observes heavy rains when upper level Western Disturbance interacts with the monsoon trough or easterlies on the lower level. No Western Disturbance has approached North India since July.
Meanwhile, the rainfall performance over the parts of Central and West India was very high over the past week.
Parts of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan were flooded earlier in the week as the monsoonal depression crossed the region causing very heavy to extremely heavy rains resulting in overflowing of major rivers and almost every water body were flowing above the danger mark.
On 22 August, Kota in Rajasthan recorded 224mm rainfall in the span of 24 hours, This was the highest ever single day rainfall during month of August breaking the previous record of 193.1mm from 7 August 2016. Major cities of Madhya Pradesh also experienced very heavy rains on 22 August Bhopal 190.5mm, Guna 174.9mm, Sagar 173.8mm, Raisen 162.0mm and Jabalpur 160.0mm.
Then extremely heavy rainfall occurred in parts of south east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh on 23 August:
Rajasthan
Dug — 289mm (523 mm in 2days)
Arnod — 258mm
Pirawa — 234mm
Bakani — 227mm
Sunel — 188mm
Raipur 185mm
Bassi D — 182mm
Pachpahar — 174mm
Gangdhar — 166mm
Aklera — 161mm
Jetpura — 160mm
Orai — 154mm
Asnawar — 150mm
Kothari — 130mm
Gambhiri D — 129mm
Madhya Pradesh
Zirapur — 294mm
Alot — 283mm
Nalkheda — 253mm
Shamgarh — 236mm
Sehore — 230mm
Goharganj — 214mm
Chachoda — 213mm
Berasia — 209mm
Lateri — 208mm
Kalapipal — 196mm
Nagda — 191mm
Bhopal — 182mm
Raisen — 170mm
Narmadapuram — 154mm
As per IMD data, total monsoon seasonal rains in India from 1 June till 27 August:
• India as a whole recorded a total of 721.2mm rainfall against the average of 672.1mm, a departure from normal stands at +7 per cent, it was at +8 per cent past Saturday.
Subdivision wise seasonal rainfall figures:
• Southern Peninsula: Actual 667.0mm against the average of 535.4mm, +25 per cent departure from normal.
• East & North East India: Actual 837.6mm against the average of 1047.8mm, -20 per cent departure from normal.
• North West India: Actual 468.6mm against the average of 466.2mm, 1 per cent departure from normal.
• Central India: Actual 928.3mm against the average of 762.1mm, +22 per cent departure from normal.
Synoptic conditions over India on 27 August:
• The monsoon trough at mean sea level continues to run close to foothills of the Himalayas.
• The cyclonic circulation over southwest Bihar and neighbourhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.
• The Western Disturbance as a cyclonic circulation over west Afghanistan & adjoining Iran at 3.1 km above mean sea level persists. The trough aloft with its axis at 5.8 km above mean sea level now runs roughly along Long. 65°E to the north of Lat. 32°N.
•The cyclonic circulation over central parts of South Bay of Bengal between 4.5 km and 5.8 km above mean sea level persists.
•The trough from cyclonic circulation over central parts of South Bay of Bengal to south coastal Tamilnadu at 3.1 km above mean sea level persists.
•The north-south trough from south Coastal Andhra Pradesh to Comorin Area across Tamil Nadu extending upto 1.5 km above mean sea level persists.
All India Weather Forecast till 3 September:
North India
The upcoming week is expected to be another disappointing week in terms of monsoon performance in north India.
In absence of any major weather system and shifting of monsoon trough to the Himalayas will lead to flow of Northwest winds in the plains of North India which are dry in nature resulting in below normal rains in Jammu, Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi and Western Uttar Pradesh where weather conditions are expected to be dry with isolated rains.
Somehow parts of East Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh will manage to receive scattered light to moderate rains from Sunday to Wednesday.
The chances of a full-fledged monsoon revival in North India is very low for the next week.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 3 September:
• Uttarakhand — 80mm
• Himachal Pradesh — 60mm
• Uttar Pradesh — 60mm
• Jammu and Kashmir — 30mm
• Delhi NCR — 20mm
• Haryana — 10mm
• Punjab — 10mm
• Rajasthan — 10mm
Central India
The series of low-pressure areas travelling across Central India came to an end, In the upcoming week no large-scale weather phenomenon to impact the weather in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The weather conditions are expected to be largely dry in Gujarat, however parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra will be dependent on convection for rains the upcoming week which will take place but the rains are expected to be scattered in nature.
Overall in the upcoming week rains are likely to be below normal in the heartland of the country.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 3 September:
• Maharashtra — 60mm
• Chhattisgarh — 50mm
• Madhya Pradesh — 40mm
• Gujarat — 10mm
East and North East India
The monsoon axis is now established over the foothills of Himalayas paving way for the moisture feeding southern winds from the Bay of Bengal to reach North East India.
Over the upcoming week, a gradual increase in rainfall activities will be observed in India’s North East, Sikkim, Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Jharkhand and parts of Bihar.
Widespread heavy to very heavy rains are expected to occur in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Manipur from 28 August to 3 September.
Parts of Sub Himalayan West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar to experience scattered to fairly widespread moderate to heavy rains during this period.
Overall North East India will try to recover some of the deficiency during the upcoming week by registering normal to above normal rains.
Expected Precipitation accumulation till 3 September:
• North East India — 180mm
• West Bengal — 90mm
• Jharkhand — 70mm
• Bihar — 70mm
• Odisha — 40mm
Southern Peninsula
As soon as the monsoon axis shifts to the foothills of the Himalayas, wind discontinuity becomes a common feature in the southern peninsula, it favours the formation of convective clouds in the interiors of Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Kerala.
An increase in rainfall activities has been observed in the last few days of the past week.
Record-breaking rains have occurred in Mysuru city with a total monthly accumulation crossing the 300mm mark, breaking its all-time record of 256.8mm which was recorded back in 1910. Similarly, major cities like Bangalore, and Chennai are experiencing moderate to heavy rains.
As the monsoon break conditions persist in the country, most parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka, mainly the interior will continue to observe good rains across the upcoming week.
Expected precipitation accumulation till 3 September:
• Karnataka — 90mm
• Tamil Nadu — 70mm
• Kerala — 60mm
• Goa — 40mm
• Telangana — 30mm
• Andhra Pradesh — 20mm
The author, better known as the Rohtak Weatherman, interprets and explains complex weather patterns. His impact-based forecasts @navdeepdahiya55 are very popular in north India.
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